 # 统计代写| RANDOM VARIABLES stat代写

## 统计代考

To see why our current notation can quickly become unwieldy, consider again the gambler’s ruin problem from Chapter 2 . In this problem, we may be very interested in how much wealth each gambler has at any particular time. So we could make up notation like letting $A_{j k}$ be the event that gambler A has exactly $j$ dollars after $k$ rounds, and similarly defining an event $B_{j k}$ for gambler $\mathrm{B}$, for all $j$ and $k$.

This is already too complicated. Furthermore, we may also be interested in other quantities, such as the difference in their wealths (gambler A’s minus gambler B’s) after $k$ rounds, or the duration of the game (the number of rounds until one player is bankrupt). Expressing the event “the duration of the game is $r$ rounds” in terms of the $A_{j k}$ and $B_{j k}$ would involve a long, awkward string of unions and intersections. And then what if we want to express gambler A’s wealth as the equivalent amount in euros rather than dollars? We can multiply a number in dollars by a currency exchange rate, but we can’t multiply an event by an exchange rate.

Instead of having convoluted notation that obscures how the quantities of interest are related, wouldn’t it be nice if we could say something like the following?
Let $X_{k}$ be the wealth of gambler A after $k$ rounds. Then $Y_{k}=N-X_{k}$ is the wealth of gambler B after $k$ rounds (where $N$ is the fixed total wealth); $X_{k}-Y_{k}=2 X_{k}-N$ is the difference in wealths after $k$ rounds; $c_{k} X_{k}$ is the wealth of gambler $\mathrm{A}$ in euros after $k$ rounds, where $c_{k}$ is the euros per dollar exchange rate after $k$ rounds; and the duration is $R=\min \left{n: X_{n}=0\right.$ or $\left.Y_{n}=0\right}$.

The notion of a random variable will allow us to do exactly this! It needs to be introduced carefully though, to make it both conceptually and technically correct. Sometimes a definition of “random variable” is given that is a barely paraphrased
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version of “a random variable is a variable that takes on random values”, but such a feeble attempt at a definition fails to say where the randomness come from. Nor does it help us to derive properties of random variables: we’re familiar with working with algebraic equations like $x^{2}+y^{2}=1$, but what are the valid mathematical operations if $x$ and $y$ are random variables? To make the notion of random variable precise, we define it as a function mapping the sample space to the real line. (See the math appendix for review of some concepts about functions.)
FIGURE $3.1$
A random variable maps the sample space into the real line. The r.v. $X$ depicted here is defined on a sample space with 6 elements, and has possible values 0,1 , and 4. The randomness comes from choosing a random pebble according to the probability function $P$ for the sample space.

Definition 3.1.1 (Random variable). Given an experiment with sample space $S$, a random variable (r.v.) is a function from the sample space $S$ to the real numbers $\mathbb{R}$. It is common, but not required, to denote random variables by capital letters.
Thus, a random variable $X$ assigns a numerical value $X(s)$ to each possible outcome $s$ of the experiment. The randomness comes from the fact that we have a random experiment (with probabilities described by the probability function P); the mapsimpler way in the left panel of Figure $3.2$, in which we inscribe the values inside the pebbles.

This definition is abstract but fundamental; one of the most important skills to develop when studying probability and statistics is the ability to go back and forth between abstract ideas and concrete examples. Relatedly, it is important to work on recognizing the essential pattern or structure of a problem and how it connects
Random variables and their distributions
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to problems you have studied previously. We will often discuss stories that involve tossing coins or drawing balls from urns because they are simple, convenient scenarios to work with, but many other problems are isomorphic: they have the same essential structure, but in a different guise.

To start, let’s consider a coin-tossing example. The structure of the problem is that we have a sequence of trials where there are two possible outcomes for each trial. Here we think of the possible outcomes as $H$ (Heads) and $T$ (Tails), but we could just as well think of them as “success” and “failure” or as 1 and 0 , for example.

Example 3.1.2 (Coin tosses). Consider an experiment where we toss a fair coin twice. The sample space consists of four possible outcomes: $S=$ ${H H, H T, T H, T T}$. Here are some random variables on this space (for practice, you can think up some of your own). Each r.v. is a numerical summary of some aspect of the experiment.

• Let $X$ be the number of Heads. This is a random variable with possible values 0 , 1 , and 2. Viewed as a function, $X$ assigns the value 2 to the outcome $H H, 1$ to the outcomes $H T$ and $T H$, and 0 to the outcome TT. That is,
$$X(H H)=2, X(H T)=X(T H)=1, X(T T)=0 .$$
• Let $Y$ be the number of Tails. In terms of $X$, we have $Y=2-X$. In other words, $Y$ and $2-X$ are the same r.v.: $Y(s)=2-X(s)$ for all $s$.
• Let $I$ be 1 if the first toss lands Heads and 0 otherwise. Then $I$ assigns the value 1 to the outcomes $H H$ and $H T$ and 0 to the outcomes $T H$ and TT. This r.v. is an example of what is called an indicator random variable since it indicates whether the first toss lands Heads, using 1 to mean “yes” and 0 to mean “no”.

We can also encode the sample space as ${(1,1),(1,0),(0,1),(0,0)}$, where 1 is the code for Heads and 0 is the code for Tails. Then we can give explicit formulas for $X, Y, I$
$$X\left(s_{1}, s_{2}\right)=s_{1}+s_{2}, Y\left(s_{1}, s_{2}\right)=2-s_{1}-s_{2}, I\left(s_{1}, s_{2}\right)=s_{1},$$
where for simplicity we write $X\left(s_{1}, s_{2}\right)$ to mean $X\left(\left(s_{1}, s_{2}\right)\right)$, etc.
For most r.v.s we will consider, it is tedious or infeasible to write down an explicit formula in this way. Fortunately, it is usually unnecessary to do so, since (as we saw in this example) there are other ways to define an r.v., and (as we will see throughout the rest of this book) there are many ways to study the properties of each outcome $s$ to.

As in the previous chapters, for a sample space with a finite number of outcomes we can visualize the outcomes as pebbles, with the mass of a pebble corresponding to its probability, such that the total mass of the pebbles is 1 . A random variable simply labels each pebble with a number. Figure $3.2$ shows two random variables

## 统计代考

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“随机变量是一个具有随机值的变量”的版本，但是对定义的这种微弱尝试未能说明随机性来自何处。它也不能帮助我们推导出随机变量的性质：我们熟悉代数方程，如 $x^{2}+y^{2}=1$，但是如果 $x$ 和$y$ 是随机变量吗？为了使随机变量的概念更精确，我们将其定义为将样本空间映射到实线的函数。 （有关函数的一些概念的回顾，请参见数学附录。）

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• 设 $X$ 为正面数。这是一个随机变量，可能值为 0 、 1 和 2。作为一个函数，$X$ 将值 2 分配给结果 $HH，将 1$ 分配给结果 $HT$ 和 $TH$，并将 0 分配给结果