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统计推断Statistical inference机械部件通常被设计为精确地配合在一起。例如，如果一个轴被设计成在一个孔中 “滑动配合”，轴必须比孔小一点。(传统的公差可能表明，所有的尺寸都在这些预定的公差之内。然而，对实际生产的过程能力研究可能显示出具有长尾巴的正态分布）。轴和孔的尺寸通常会形成具有一些平均值（算术平均值）和标准差的正态分布。
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统计代写|统计推断作业代写Statistical inference代考|The Concept of Sign
It is widely supposed that the impact of the Renaissance was to shift the object of knowledge from the books of men to the book of nature. Garber and Zabell (1979), seeking continuity and stability, protest that the metaphor of the great book of nature had been around for centuries. The important point for the present context, however, is just that, whatever its remote precursors, the metaphor did not catch on until the Renaissance. The Protestant Reformation obviously helped to undermine ecclesiastical authority; it is also reasonable to suppose that the printing press, through its drastic cheapening of the written word, contributed to the break-up of the safe, ingrown scholastic fascination with texts. Certainly today, with millions of books representing different viewpoints on every conceivable subject, it is much more difficult for us to imagine that they all contain the sacred truth, than if all we possessed were a few ancient scrolls handed down for uncounted generations. ${ }^{7,8}$
The epistemology of the Renaissance remained, like that of the Middle Ages, fundamentally a matter of interpretation, preserving the religious as well as the hermeneutic orientation. It was still God’s word which was read, even if the text had changed; initially, at least, it was not religion, but only the clergy, which lost in the transition. In the original meaning of the term, everything was legend: People read the stars for signs of the future, read the surface features of the earth for signs of water below, read the urine for signs of liver trouble. The basis for interpretation, for identifying and reading natural signs, was resemblance. Oswald Croll, a follower of Paracelsus, argued, for example, that the resemblance between a walnut and a human head must be a sign of the medicinal properties with which nature has endowed the nut. Thus the rind covering the bony shell ought to be useful in treating scalp wounds, and surely the nutmeat itself, “which is exactly like the brain in appearance,” would be good for internal head injuries (Foucault, 1973b, p. 27).
Foucault (1973b) speaks as though Renaissance epistemology were monolithic; but, although neo-Platonist hermeticism is distinctive of the Renaissance, it by no means replaced the medieval Aristotelian tradition, which, as Maclean $(1998,2002)$ insists, continued to flourish alongside it, especially in the universities. The distinction, like many others, can be overdrawn; the overlap is clear in the sixteenthcentury university curriculum in medicine, which included semiology along with physiology, pathology, therapy, and hygiene (Maclean, 2002). Both epistemologies, in any case, had their vulnerabilities and wouldn’t survive the seventeenth century. The shift in the concept of sign, which Foucault sees as pivotal, actually served to undermine both.
统计代写|统计推断作业代写STATISTICAL INFERENCE代考|The Combinatorics of Language and Thought
The liberation of words from their bondage to resemblance meant that they now rooted their usefulness in a different ground, namely, in their exhibition of relationships to other signs (Foucault, 1973b). If language was no longer natural, however, neither was it arbitrary. The linguistic project of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries was to construct a language, a system of representations, that would perfectly reflect the component elements of nature, so that the combination of signs in discourse might mirror the composition of nature. The ideal of language as a literal representation of nature in its component parts is reflected, for example, in the wish of Linnaeus that the text of his Philosophie Botanique, in its typographical modules, might exhibit a vegetable structure (Foucault, 1973b), ${ }^{10}$ or in the suggestion of Ehrenfried Tschirnhaus, in his Medicina Mentis sive Artis Inveniendi Pracepta
Generalia of 1687 , that the true definition of laughter ought to be funny (Windelband, 1901/1958). (I don’t know what he thought about the definition of error.)
The ideal of a linguistic calculus exemplifying a mathematical model of knowledge spanned the whole space of epistemologies in the period from 1650 to 1800 . The appeal to Leibniz and Spinoza is obvious, but for Hobbes and for Locke as well, thinking consisted merely of combinations of verbal signs. This program, making logic coincident with semiotics (Windelband, 1901/1958, p. 452), is generally considered to have reached its ultimate expression in Condillac’s Logic (1780/1822). ${ }^{11}$
统计代写|统计推断作业代写STATISTICAL INFERENCE代考|Causality
In the new language of calculation, the relations among signs had become wholly external. As resemblance was replaced by relations of order and measurement, and interpretation gave way to representation, knowledge, now a matter of mere reckoning with signs, was losing its depth. The world was becoming a black box. This general externalization of knowledge would not have been possible, however, without the dissolution of the concept of cause, with which it went hand in hand. Formally, the concept of causality underwent a transformation in some respects like that of signification: Both metaphysically and epistemologically, the two terms of a formerly asymmetrical relationship were flattened into the same plane, becoming formally similar.
Metaphysically, causality had been, in the Aristotelian conception, a relation between an entity and its actions. The mathematical approach of Kepler and Galileo, however, led to a shift from the study of things to the study of their motions. Hence, while even Descartes still held to the Aristotelian notion of aitia as substances or things, Galileo went back to the earlier Greek thinkers, like Leucippus, for whom causality was a relation between states, or motions. From Galileo on, “Causes are motions, and effects are motions. The relation of impact and counter-impact, of the passing over of motion from one corpuscle to another, is the original fundamental form of the causal relation” (Windelband, 1901/1958, p. 410).
Epistemologically, causality was assimilated to the omnivorous concept of sign: Causes were signs; effects were signs. Their frequency of co-occurrence was left as the only observable relation between things. Neither medieval meanings nor scholastic causes any longer held things together. Characteristics became detachable from entities and from each other; their association became a matter of statistical coincidence. $^{12}$
统计推断学代写
统计代写|统计推断作业代写STATISTICAL INFERENCE代考|THE CONCEPT OF SIGN
人们普遍认为，文艺复兴的影响是将知识的对象从人的书转移到自然的书上。加伯和扎贝尔1979，寻求连续性和稳定性，抗议大自然的伟大书籍的隐喻已经存在了几个世纪。然而，对于当前语境来说，重要的一点是，不管它的前身是什么，这个隐喻直到文艺复兴时期才流行起来。新教改革显然有助于削弱教会权威；还可以合理地假设，印刷机通过对书面文字的大幅贬值，促成了对文本安全、内生的学术迷恋的瓦解。当然，今天有数以百万计的书籍代表着每一个可以想象的主题的不同观点，我们很难想象它们都包含神圣的真理，而不是我们拥有的只是几本流传了无数代的古卷。7,8
文艺复兴时期的认识论与中世纪的认识论一样，从根本上说是一个解释问题，既保留了宗教取向，也保留了诠释学取向。读到的仍然是上帝的话语，即使文本发生了变化；至少，最初不是宗教，而只是神职人员，在过渡中迷失了方向。在这个词的本义中，一切都是传说：人们看星星看未来的迹象，看地球的表面特征看下面有水的迹象，看尿液看肝病的迹象。解释、识别和阅读自然符号的基础是相似性。例如，帕拉塞尔苏斯的追随者奥斯瓦尔德·克罗尔（Oswald Croll）认为，核桃和人头的相似之处一定是大自然赋予坚果的药用特性的标志。F这你C一种你一世吨,1973b,p.27.
福柯1973b好像文艺复兴时期的认识论是铁板一块的；但是，尽管新柏拉图主义的密封主义是文艺复兴时期的特色，但它并没有取代中世纪的亚里士多德传统，正如麦克莱恩(1998,2002)坚持，继续在它旁边蓬勃发展，尤其是在大学里。与许多其他区别一样，这种区别可以透支；在 16 世纪的大学医学课程中，这种重叠很明显，其中包括符号学以及生理学、病理学、治疗学和卫生学米一种C一世和一种n,2002. 无论如何，这两种认识论都有其脆弱性，并且无法在 17 世纪存活下来。福柯认为至关重要的符号概念的转变实际上破坏了两者。
统计代写|统计推断作业代写STATISTICAL INFERENCE代考|THE COMBINATORICS OF LANGUAGE AND THOUGHT
词语从它们的束缚到相似性的解放意味着它们现在将它们的有用性植根于不同的基础，即它们与其他符号的关系的展示F这你C一种你一世吨,1973b. 然而，如果语言不再是自然的，那么它也不是任意的。17 和 18 世纪的语言学计划是构建一种语言，一种表现系统，它可以完美地反映自然的组成要素，以便话语中的符号组合可以反映自然的构成。例如，林奈希望他的《植物哲学》的文本在其印刷模块中表现出植物结构F这你C一种你一世吨,1973b,10或根据 Ehrenfried Tschirnhaus 在他的《心灵医学》中的建议
1687年的Generalia，笑声的真正定义应该是有趣的在一世nd和一世b一种nd,1901/1958.一世d这n′吨到n这在在H一种吨H和吨H这你GH吨一种b这你吨吨H和d和F一世n一世吨一世这n这F和rr这r.
语言演算的理想体现了知识的数学模型，跨越了从 1650 年到 1800 年的整个认识论空间。对莱布尼茨和斯宾诺莎的吸引力是显而易见的，但对于霍布斯和洛克来说，思维只是由语言符号的组合组成。这个程序，使逻辑与符号学重合在一世nd和一世b一种nd,1901/1958,p.452, 一般认为在康迪拉克的逻辑中已经达到了它的终极表达1780/1822.11
统计代写|统计推断作业代写STATISTICAL INFERENCE代考|CAUSALITY
在新的计算语言中，符号之间的关系完全是外在的。由于相似被秩序和测量的关系所取代，解释让位于表现，知识，现在仅仅是考虑符号的问题，正在失去它的深度。世界正在变成一个黑匣子。然而，如果没有与它齐头并进的原因概念的解体，知识的这种普遍的外化是不可能的。形式上，因果性的概念在某些方面经历了与意义类似的转变：在形而上学和认识论上，以前不对称关系的两个术语被扁平化到同一平面上，变得形式上相似。
从形而上学的角度来看，在亚里士多德的概念中，因果关系是实体与其行为之间的关系。然而，开普勒和伽利略的数学方法导致从研究事物转向研究它们的运动。因此，即使笛卡尔仍然坚持亚里士多德关于 aitia 作为实体或事物的概念，伽利略又回到了早期的希腊思想家，如留基波，对他们来说，因果关系是状态或运动之间的关系。从伽利略开始，“原因是运动，结果是运动。冲击和反冲击的关系，运动从一个小体到另一个小体的传递，是因果关系的原始基本形式”在一世nd和一世b一种nd,1901/1958,p.410.
在认识论上，因果关系被同化为杂食性的符号概念：原因就是符号；效果是迹象。它们同时出现的频率是事物之间唯一可观察到的关系。中世纪的意义和学术原因都不再将事物联系在一起。特征变得与实体和彼此分离；他们的联系变成了统计上的巧合。12
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