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统计推断Statistical inference机械部件通常被设计为精确地配合在一起。例如，如果一个轴被设计成在一个孔中 “滑动配合”，轴必须比孔小一点。(传统的公差可能表明，所有的尺寸都在这些预定的公差之内。然而，对实际生产的过程能力研究可能显示出具有长尾巴的正态分布）。轴和孔的尺寸通常会形成具有一些平均值（算术平均值）和标准差的正态分布。
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统计代写|统计推断作业代写Statistical inference代考|Early Technologies of Distance
One early example of a technology of distance is language. It is obvious that language enormously facilitates communication, making possible extensive and immediate interactions with complete strangers. At the same time, all of us find it difficult, at least at times, to put our experience into words, in a way that we feel does justice to the experience. The challenge of trying, in Alan Watts’s phrase, to “eff the ineffable” is especially familiar in the case of affective or esthetic experience. But once we embody the experience in words, they become its new reality; they are what we remember, even as we know they are not exhaustive of the experience. We are so accustomed to this process that we hardly notice the price we pay in the impoverishment of our experience and our memories that results.
Two other devices, clothing and personal names, may have become important with the advent of civilization, around 10,000 years ago, when people settled down into cities. There were for the first time in human history more people in one place than could easily be kept track of, and Ableman (1985) believes that both clothing and personal names were introduced for the purpose of identification. The concept of modesty was introduced by religions thousands of years later; clothing, apart from warmth and protection from the elements, appears to have been introduced, probably along with tattooing, as a way of stylizing one’s identity. The motivation for clothing may not have been purely cognitive, as Ableman implies; the familiarity and trust that would have been part of life in nomadic tribes of $50-150$ people were lost with civilization (literally, living in cities), and it would not be surprising if a new layer of protection were felt to be needed in the company of thousands of strangers. Indeed, I strongly suspect that the direction of historical causation was the opposite of what we have been told: that, in history as well as ontogenesis, chronically keeping ourselves covered up led eventually to feelings of shame, which could then be exploited by religion (cf. Acree, 2005). Clothing would still count, however, as a technology of distance. And it is clear, in any case, to what degree we have come to invest our identity in our wardrobe and in our names-and also how superficial both these aspects of our identity are.
统计代写|统计推断作业代写STATISTICAL INFERENCE代考|The Emergence of the Market Economy
Certain economic changes during the medieval period laid the groundwork for the cognitive revolution that was to follow several centuries later. The effects can be characterized globally in terms of (a) the development of mathematical and mechanistic models, and of relativistic thinking, as Joel Kaye (1991/1992) has brilliantly shown, and (b) the peculiar reductionist consequences of technologies of scale.
Western Europe until around the eleventh century had largely a barter economy, with very little money in circulation (Kaye, $1991 / 1992,1998$ ). Barter is pretty much limited to face-to-face transactions, and it is difficult. If I wanted a car in a barter economy, I would have to go around to everyone who had the kind of car I wanted and hope somebody had a ton of data to be analyzed. As David Friedman (1996) points out, the reason finding a romantic partner is so difficult is that it operates on the barter system: You not only have to find somebody who has what you want, but that same person has to want what you have. Money is a technology of distance extraordinaire; it makes possible transactions at a distance both geographically and personally.
Market prices prescind from all qualities save one, which they measure with astonishing readiness and precision-all without the conspicuous exercise of individual judgment. The impersonality and automaticity of the process impart a kind of social objectivity, whose advantages are attended, as with most technologies, by liabilities. For this and other reasons, technologies of scale, once they are developed, tend to dominate. In the case of prices, their efficiency with respect to barter means greater wealth. But they enjoy also the advantage of concreteness and specificity: In somewhat the same way, perhaps, that experiences which can be put into words are more easily remembered, the precision of prices awards them a salience with respect to more vaguely defined qualities. The result, in any event, is a tendency for prices to become constitutive of value more generally. A familiar example is the businessman encountered by St. Exupéry’s (1943/1999) Little Prince. In describing a house, the Little Prince gets no reaction at all until he mentions how much it cost, whereupon the businessman agrees that it must be a very fine house indeed. As later centuries were eventually to appreciate, thanks especially to Marx, the market economy carries the risk that individuals will come to experience themselves and each other in the same reductionist terms as they are defined by the system. And the risk, while not unavoidable, has been significantly realized: The skeuomorphosis of humanity into commodity yielded the famous alienation of modernity. $^{6}$
统计代写|统计推断作业代写STATISTICAL INFERENCE代考|Mathematical, Mechanistic, and Relativistic Thinking
One of the eventual consequences of the emergence of the market economy for the seventeenth-century crisis in knowledge was that everything was found to have a price-even salvation, through the sale of indulgences. Hadden (1994) suggests that the concept of general magnitude was abstracted from the exchange of dissimilar commodities, and Kaye (1991/1992) discerns here the origin of the idea that everything could be numerically measured. Aristotle’s sharp distinction between quality and quantity was undermined, and debates about measurement at the Universities of Paris and Oxford adumbrated those six centuries hence-whether, for instance, it is possible to measure love, or anxiety, or intelligence. The idea that all qualities were susceptible to mensuration led in turn to a geometrization of the world (Kaye, 1991/1992)—-very quality represented by a continuum, every continuum by a line-and to the formulation of mathematical models.
The ordering of things under the new economic system had the effect, moreover, of undermining in several ways existing theories of natural order. Henry of Ghent was still arguing, in the thirteenth century, that a dying horse was worth more than a healthy ass, as Augustine had argued that a mouse, being alive, was more valuable than a pearl. But prices stubbornly declared otherwise. Money also provided an index of personal worth quite distinct from nobility and thus subverted aristocratic rankings. Eventually, in the conflict between economic and natural order, the latter yielded; the result was a mechanistic view of the universe, which no longer required a Mover to keep everything going (though Jean Buridan, with a bow to theology, acknowledged that God could have endowed the universe at Creation with forces which kept it going).
The discovery that such a complex system required no outside intervention had still further consequences. Aristotle had distinguished two kinds of justice in economic transactions. Distributive justice-virtually the opposite of what it is taken to mean today-required essentially that the transaction be free and voluntary. Rectificatory justice pertained to post facto adjustment of an unjust transaction by a third party, so as to bring the holdings into equality. In the hands of some medieval commentators, the latter, which they referred to as commutative justice, came to be considered on an equal footing, engendering debates about whether prices should be determined by the free market or by fiat. The latter alternative naturally had its appeal to prospective third parties, but in point of fact was found to be largely superfluous in practice. The observation that the free market tended to satisfy both partners to the exchange after all, Kaye (1991/1992) suggests, may have been an early source of the idea that judgment could be replaced by calculation.
统计推断学代写
统计代写|统计推断作业代写STATISTICAL INFERENCE代考|EARLY TECHNOLOGIES OF DISTANCE
距离技术的一个早期例子是语言。很明显，语言极大地促进了交流，使与完全陌生的人进行广泛而直接的互动成为可能。同时，我们所有人都发现很难，至少有时，很难将我们的经验用语言表达出来，以一种我们认为对经验公正的方式。用艾伦·瓦茨的话来说，尝试“消除不可言喻的东西”的挑战在情感或审美体验的情况下尤其常见。但是一旦我们将体验体现在文字中，它们就变成了它的新现实；它们是我们所记得的，即使我们知道它们并不详尽。我们已经习惯了这个过程，以至于我们几乎没有注意到我们为体验和记忆的贫乏所付出的代价。
大约 10,000 年前，当人们在城市定居时，随着文明的出现，另外两种设备（服装和个人姓名）可能变得很重要。人类历史上第一次在一个地方有更多的人，而不是容易追踪的，而 Ableman1985认为服装和个人姓名都是出于识别目的而引入的。几千年后，宗教引入了谦虚的概念。服装，除了保暖和保护元素之外，似乎已经被引入，可能与纹身一起，作为一种风格化一个人的身份的方式。正如Ableman所暗示的那样，服装的动机可能不是纯粹的认知。熟悉和信任，这将成为游牧部落生活的一部分50−150人们迷失在文明中一世一世吨和r一种一世一世是,一世一世v一世nG一世nC一世吨一世和s，如果在成千上万的陌生人的陪伴下感到需要一层新的保护也就不足为奇了。事实上，我强烈怀疑历史因果关系的方向与我们被告知的相反：在历史和个体发生过程中，长期隐藏自己最终导致羞耻感，然后可能被宗教利用CF.一种Cr和和,2005. 然而，服装仍然算作一种距离技术。无论如何，很明显，我们已经在多大程度上将我们的身份投入到我们的衣橱和我们的名字中——以及我们身份的这两个方面是多么肤浅。
统计代写|统计推断作业代写STATISTICAL INFERENCE代考|THE EMERGENCE OF THE MARKET ECONOMY
中世纪时期的某些经济变化为几个世纪后的认知革命奠定了基础。这些影响可以在全球范围内表征为一种数学和机械模型的发展，以及相对论思维的发展，如 Joel Kaye1991/1992已经出色地展示了，并且b规模技术的特殊还原论后果。
直到 11 世纪左右，西欧主要是易货经济，流通中的货币很少到一种是和,$1991/1992,1998$. 易货交易几乎仅限于面对面交易，而且很难。如果我想要一辆易货经济中的汽车，我将不得不去找所有拥有我想要的汽车的人，并希望有人有大量的数据可供分析。作为大卫弗里德曼1996指出，寻找浪漫伴侣之所以如此困难，是因为它在易货交易系统上运作：你不仅要找到一个拥有你想要的东西的人，而且这个人还必须想要你拥有的东西。金钱是一种非凡的距离技术；它使在地理上和个人上的远距离交易成为可能。
市场价格从所有质量中脱颖而出，除了一种，它们以惊人的准备和精确度衡量——所有这些都没有明显地运用个人判断。过程的非个人性和自动性赋予了一种社会客观性，其优势与大多数技术一样，伴随着责任。由于这个和其他原因，规模化技术一旦被开发出来，就会占据主导地位。就价格而言，它们在易货交易方面的效率意味着更大的财富。但他们也享有具体和具体的优势：也许在某种程度上，可以用语言表达的经验更容易记住，价格的精确性使他们在定义更模糊的品质方面具有显着性。结果，无论如何，是价格更普遍地成为价值构成要素的趋势。一个熟悉的例子是圣埃克苏佩里遇到的商人1943/1999小王子。描述房子时，小王子一点反应都没有，直到他提到房子要花多少钱，商人才同意这一定是一栋非常好的房子。正如后来的几个世纪最终认识到的那样，特别是多亏了马克思，市场经济具有这样的风险，即个人将以与系统所定义的相同的还原论术语来体验自己和彼此。风险，虽然并非不可避免，但已经显着意识到：人性化为商品的拟物化产生了著名的现代性异化。6
统计代写|统计推断作业代写STATISTICAL INFERENCE代考|MATHEMATICAL, MECHANISTIC, AND RELATIVISTIC THINKING
市场经济的出现对 17 世纪的知识危机的最终后果之一是，通过出售赎罪券，一切都被发现有价格甚至救赎。哈登1994认为一般量的概念是从不同商品的交换中抽象出来的，而凯1991/1992在这里辨别出一切都可以用数字测量的想法的起源。亚里士多德对质量和数量的明确区分被削弱了，巴黎大学和牛津大学关于测量的辩论预示着这六个世纪——例如，是否有可能测量爱、焦虑或智力。所有品质都易于测量的想法反过来导致了世界的几何化到一种是和,1991/1992—-非常质量由一个连续体表示，每一个连续体都由一条线表示——以及数学模型的制定。
此外，新经济体系下的事物秩序还以多种方式破坏了现有的自然秩序理论。在 13 世纪，根特的亨利仍在争论，一匹垂死的马比一头健康的驴更有价值，正如奥古斯丁认为活着的老鼠比珍珠更有价值一样。但价格却顽固地宣称并非如此。金钱还提供了一个与贵族截然不同的个人价值指数，从而颠覆了贵族的排名。最终，在经济秩序与自然秩序的冲突中，后者屈服了；结果是宇宙的机械视图，不再需要移动器来保持一切运转吨H这你GHĴ和一种n乙你r一世d一种n,在一世吨H一种b这在吨这吨H和这一世这G是,一种C到n这在一世和dG和d吨H一种吨G这dC这你一世dH一种v和和nd这在和d吨H和你n一世v和rs和一种吨Cr和一种吨一世这n在一世吨HF这rC和s在H一世CH到和p吨一世吨G这一世nG.
如此复杂的系统不需要外部干预的发现还有更进一步的后果。亚里士多德在经济交易中区分了两种正义。分配正义——实际上与今天的含义相反——本质上要求交易是自由和自愿的。矫正正义是指对第三方的不公正交易进行事后调整，以实现持股平等。在一些中世纪评论家的手中，后者被他们称为交换正义，被平等地考虑，引发了关于价格应该由自由市场还是由法令决定的辩论。后一种选择自然会吸引潜在的第三方，但实际上在实践中发现它在很大程度上是多余的。1991/1992建议，可能是判断可以被计算取代的想法的早期来源。
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