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EC1B1课程简介
Teacher responsible
Dr Jonathon Hazell, 32L.1.22
Availability
This course is available on the BSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics and BSc in Economics. This course is not available as an outside option nor to General Course students.
Pre-requisites
Students must have completed Economics (EC1P1) and Elementary Statistical Theory I (ST109).
Students must also either have completed Quantitative Methods (Mathematics) (MA107) or else be taking Mathematical Methods (MA100) alongside.
Prerequisites
This course builds on the knowledge learned in EC1P1. You will learn why economic activity fluctuates over time (business cycles). We will discuss how government policy can affect short-term outcomes, such as unemployment, GDP and inflation. Other topics will include inequality and financial crises. We will apply the tools developed in the course to recent events, as well as historical events such as the Great Depression. An important aspect of the course is a coding exercise with data. This will help you acquire a deeper understanding of the material.
EC1B1, in combination with EC1A1, contributes towards certificate level exemptions from professional Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA) examinations.
This course, combined with EC1A1, contributes to the CB2 Exemption of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA).
EC1B1 Macroeconomics(EXAM HELP, ONLINE TUTOR)
Part I. True/False/Uncertain
Justify your answer with a short argument.
- From 1960 to 2000 , the US, EU, and Japan all have experienced similar rates of unemployment.
- GDP is the value of all goods and services produced in the economy.
- The Phillips Curve describes the negative relationship between the change in unemployment rate and inflation.
- Inflation is bad for the economy because goods and services are more expensive.
- The multiplier Keynesian multiplier is always greater than 1 if $\mathrm{T}=0$ and $\mathrm{G}=0$.
Part I. True/False/Uncertain
Justify your answer with a short argument.
- From 1960 to 2000 , the US, EU, and Japan all have experienced similar rates of unemployment.
False.
All three regions have experienced drastically different rates of unemployment. Tables 1-1,1-2, 1-3 tell us that the US average unemployment rate for 1960-2000 was $6.1 \%$, that of EU was $6.5 \%$, and that of Japan was $2.0 \%$. Even though the average rates of unemployment were similar in the US and EU, figure 1-5 shows that the unemployment rates were actually very different over this period. - GDP is the value of all goods and services produced in the economy.
False. (See page 22)
GDP $=$ Gross Domestic Product
GDP $=$ Value of * FINAL goods \& services produced in the economy. - The Phillips Curve describes the negative relationship between the change in unemployment rate and inflation.
False.
Phillips Curve (Modified Phillips Curve) (page 32-33) $\rightarrow$ negative relationship between the unemployment rate \& the CHANGE in inflation (When the unemployment rate is low, inflation tends to increase.)
(We will revisit the Phillips Curve in chapter 8 again.) - Inflation is bad for the economy because goods and services are more expensive.
Uncertain. (page 33)
Inflation usually leads to distortions because all prices and wages do not rise proportionately during inflationary periods. So, inflation affects income distribution and may lead to uncertainties about the future which is considered not good. If all prices rise proportionally it is called pure inflation and it would just be a minor inconvenience.
- The multiplier (Keynesian multiplier) is always greater than 1 if $\mathrm{T}=0$ and $\mathrm{G}=0$.
True. (page 52)
$\begin{array}{ll}\text { Goods Market Eqm } \rightarrow \quad & \mathrm{Y}=\mathrm{C}+\mathrm{I}+\mathrm{G} \ \mathrm{Y}=\left[\mathrm{c}_0+\mathrm{c}_1 \mathrm{Y}-\mathrm{c}_1 \mathrm{~T}\right]+\mathrm{I}+\mathrm{G} \ & \mathrm{Y}=\left[\frac{1}{1-c_1}\right]\left[\mathrm{c}_0+\mathrm{I}+\mathrm{G}-\mathrm{c}_1 \mathrm{~T}\right] \ \text { multiplier } \rightarrow\left[\frac{1}{1-c_1}\right] & \end{array}$
If $0<\mathrm{c}_1<1 \rightarrow\left[\frac{1}{1-c_1}\right]>1$
If the marginal propensity to consume is less than 1 , it means that people consume less than $100 \%$ of their disposable income. It also implies that the multiplier is greater 1 . The fact that $\mathrm{T}=0$ and $\mathrm{G}=0$ is irrelevant.
Part II. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS (GDP, GDP DEFLATOR \& CPI)
For part II, assume the following:
- MIT is an autonomous country.
- The only good/service produced at MIT is undergrad (freshmen) education.
- Fill in the following:
- Find the growth rate of nominal GDP for 2002,2003 and 2004.
- Find the growth rate of real GDP (using 2000 \$) for 2002,2003 and 2004.
- Find the growth rate of real GDP (using 1950 \$) for 2002,2003 and 2004.
- Why are your answers in 2,3 and 4 different/same?
Part II. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS (GDP, GDP DEFLATOR \& CPI)
For part II, assume the following:
- MIT is an autonomous country.
- The only good/service produced at MIT is undergrad (freshmen) education.
- Fill in the following:
- Fill in the following:
\begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|}
\hline year & $\begin{array}{c}\text { # of MIT } \
\text { freshmen }\end{array}$ & $\begin{array}{c}\text { Price } \
\text { (Tuition) }\end{array}$ & nominal GDP & $\begin{array}{c}\text { real GDP } \
(1950 \$)\end{array}$ & $\begin{array}{c}\text { real GDP } \
(2000 \$)\end{array}$ \
\hline 1950 & $\$ 300$ & $\$ 2,000$ & $\$ 600,000$ & $\$ 600,000$ & $\$ 6,000,000$ \
2000 & $\$ 900$ & $\$ 20,000$ & $\$ 18,000,000$ & $\$ 1,800,000$ & $\$ 18,000,000$ \
2001 & $\$ 1,000$ & $\$ 21,000$ & $\$ 21,000,000$ & $\$ 2,000,000$ & $\$ 20,000,000$ \
2002 & $\$ 1,100$ & $\$ 23,000$ & $\$ 25,300,000$ & $\$ 2,200,000$ & $\$ 22,000,000$ \
2003 & $\$ 1,000$ & $\$ 25,000$ & $\$ 25,000,000$ & $\$ 2,000,000$ & $\$ 20,000,000$ \
2004 & $\$ 1,200$ & $\$ 28,000$ & $\$ 33,600,000$ & $\$ 2,400,000$ & $\$ 24,000,000$ \
\hline
\end{tabular}
- Find the growth rate of nominal GDP for 2002,2003 and 2004.
- Find the growth rate of real GDP (using 2000 \$) for 2002, 2003 and 2004.
- Find the growth rate of real GDP (using 1950 \$) for 2002, 2003 and 2004.
\begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|}
\hline & & & \
& $(2)$ answer & $(3)$ answer & $(4)$ answer \
\hline year & nominal GDP & real GDP & real GDP \
& growth & growth (1950\$) & growth (2000\$) \
& $(\%)$ & $(\%)$ & $(\%)$ \
\hline 2001 & 16.7 & 11.1 & 11.1 \
2002 & 20.5 & 10.0 & 10.0 \
2003 & -5.1 & -9.1 & -9.1 \
2004 & 40.0 & 20.0 & 20.0 \
\hline
\end{tabular}
How to calculate the growth rate: $\quad$ Growth rate of $\mathrm{X}{\mathrm{t}}=\left(\frac{X{(t)}-X_{(t-1)}}{X_{(t-1)}}\right) * 100$
- Why are your answers in 2,3 and $4 \mathrm{different/same?}$
The answer to 2 differs from that of 3 and 4 . (page 24-26)
Nominal GDP is the sum of quantities of final goods produced times their current price. Therefore, nominal GDP increases over time for 2 reasons.
(1) The production of goods increases over time (Quantity goes up)
(2) The price of most goods also increase over time (Prices goes up).
Real GDP is constructed as the sum of the quantities of final goods times constant prices. (A base year is chosen). So, it tells us how the quantity of finals goods changes over time. Only the change in quantity affects real GDP.
The answers to 3 and 4 are identical. The base year chosen is sort of like a choice of unit of measurement. For example, whether one measures one’s weight in pounds or kilograms does not affect one’s actual weight. Therefore, the choice of base year, does not affect the growth of real GDP.
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