MY-ASSIGNMENTEXPERT™可以为您提供lse.ac.uk ST308 Bayesian Analysis贝叶斯分析课程的代写代考和辅导服务！
这是伦敦政经学校贝叶斯分析课程的代写成功案例。
ST308课程简介
This course is available on the BSc in Actuarial Science, BSc in Business Mathematics and Statistics, BSc in Data Science, BSc in Mathematics with Economics and BSc in Mathematics, Statistics and Business. This course is available as an outside option to students on other programmes where regulations permit and to General Course students.
Teaching
This course will be delivered through a combination of classes, lectures, and Q&A sessions, totalling a minimum of 29 hours across the Lent Term. This course does not include a reading week and will be concluded by the end of week 10 of Lent Term.
Prerequisites
Students must have completed one of the following two combinations of courses: (a) ST102 and MA100, or (b) MA107 and ST109 and EC1C1. Equivalent combinations may be accepted at the lecturer’s discretion. ST202 is also recommended.
Previous programming experience is not required but students who have no previous experience in R must complete an online pre-sessional R course from the Digital Skills Lab before the start of the course (https://moodle.lse.ac.uk/course/view.php?id=7745)
ST308 Bayesian Analysis HELP（EXAM HELP， ONLINE TUTOR）
Company A supplies $40 \%$ of the computers sold and is late $5 \%$ of the time. Company B supplies $30 \%$ of the computers sold and is late $3 \%$ of the time. Company $\mathrm{C}$ supplies another $30 \%$ and is late $2.5 \%$ of the time. A computer arrives late – what is the probability that it came from Company $A$ ?
Let $L$ be the event that the computer arrives late and $A, B, C$ denote the events that the computer came from Company $A$, $B$, and $C$, respectively. We want to find the conditional probability $P(A\mid L)$.
By the Law of Total Probability, the probability that a computer arrives late is: \begin{align*} P(L) &= P(L\mid A)P(A) + P(L\mid B)P(B) + P(L\mid C)P(C)\ &= 0.05\times 0.40 + 0.03\times 0.30 + 0.025\times 0.30\ &= 0.0315 \end{align*}
We can use Bayes’ Theorem to find the probability that a computer came from Company $A$ given that it arrived late: \begin{align*} P(A\mid L) &= \frac{P(L\mid A)P(A)}{P(L)}\ &= \frac{0.05\times 0.40}{0.0315}\ &= \boxed{0.63492} \approx 63.49% \end{align*}
In Orange County, $51 \%$ of the adults are males. One adult is randomly selected for a survey involving credit card usage. It is later learned that the selected survey subject was smoking a cigar. Also, $9.5 \%$ of males smoke cigars, whereas $1.7 \%$ of females smoke cigars (based on data from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration). Use this additional information to find the probability that the selected subject is a male.
Let $M$ be the event that the selected survey subject is male, $C$ be the event that the selected survey subject smokes a cigar, and $F$ be the event that the selected survey subject is female. We want to find the conditional probability $P(M\mid C)$.
By the Law of Total Probability, the probability that the selected survey subject smokes a cigar is: \begin{align*} P(C) &= P(C\mid M)P(M) + P(C\mid F)P(F)\ &= 0.095\times 0.51 + 0.017\times (1-0.51)\ &= 0.05338 \end{align*}
We can use Bayes’ Theorem to find the probability that the selected survey subject is male given that they smoke a cigar: \begin{align*} P(M\mid C) &= \frac{P(C\mid M)P(M)}{P(C)}\ &= \frac{0.095\times 0.51}{0.05338}\ &= \boxed{0.9064} \approx 90.64% \end{align*}
Therefore, given that the selected survey subject is smoking a cigar, there is a $90.64%$ probability that they are male.
MY-ASSIGNMENTEXPERT™可以为您提供LSE.AC.UK ST308 BAYESIAN ANALYSIS贝叶斯分析课程的代写代考和辅导服务！
